Is Collapse Coming for Us?

at a wet bulb temperature of 35°

C the human body starts to break down organs turn off the kidneys begin

to fail and no amount of sweat can cool you down it's 42°

across utar Pradesh in India

a prolonged Heat Wave bakes the cities in their surrounding

landscape throughout the region the scorching

air is inescapable as blackouts

roll through cities rendering

air conditioning useless the elders

are the first to go and as the days stretch on under the oppressive

humid and heat the young start to fall with them

hypothermia and lack of sleep brings a slow death as people flock to bodies

of water to cool off but even the promise of water on skin

is dashed by the heat the lake is now just a large hot tub

no longer providing that cool

Escape tens of millions

die in the Heatwave

as the present breaks off into a million strands

of potential Futures this is one such future

we could face one envisioned

in the first chapter of Kim Stanley Robinson's

speculative climate fiction book the ministry for the future

grappling with the potential

Pathways of climate change can be a daunting

task especially when scenarios

like Stanley Robinson's Loom on the horizon

but the path into the future

isn't linear that future

doesn't have to come to pass

millions of potentialities spread out as the years tick onward

towards 2100 some of these threads contain within them multitudes

of Bright Futures full of joy

healing and deep connection with others in the natural world

these are the futures of solar Punk of ecosocialism

of imagery like this

but there are also darker threads on the fringes

on the other side of the spectrum of our response to climate change

scenarios that are easy to ignore because they invoke too much dread

grief and anxiety unfortunately

we cannot ignore them

understanding the risks of worst case climate change scenarios

help us formulate responses

appropriate to the scale of the problem if there's a small fire in your

kitchen that could potentially burn your house down you're not going to wait and

see what happens because you've got to finish cooking dinner you're going to grab

the fire extinguisher and put it out the chance

of climate catastrophe is that little fire that could grow into an inferno

in your kitchen if we don't pay attention

so today we must dive into the climate change projections

that should shake us awake

with the scale of their potential

disasters these are the extremely

high global warming scenarios

with a small chance of happening

but if they do

they could bring death suffering

Extinction and collapse today we must face down the reality of the potential

extremes of the climate crisis

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for the channel and to be honest

me to understand what the future holds

we must first understand the present

today global temperatures hover around 1.2

de of warming above pre-industrial

levels already that one degree

has fueled storms droughts and disasters

the likes of which we rarely

see as author of the uninhabitable

earth David Wallace Wells notes in a recent talk the weather impacts in the

American city of of Houston

which has been hit by five of what were once called 500-year

storms in 5 years

500 years ago there were no Europeans in North America at all

so we're talking about a storm that we'd expect to hit once during that

entire history and Houston's been hit by five of them in 5 years

so it's literally Millennia

of extreme weather compressed into half a decade

we are now living in a world that is completely

different from anything our ancestors

have experienced and it will only continue to transform

the gold standard of climate science

the intergovernmental panel on climate changes

6 assessment report notes that even with all of the climate commitments from countries

over the last 8 years since the Paris climate agreement

the world is on track for 3 3.2

de with a high end of 3.5

de C of warming by 2100

3.2 to 3.5 de of warming is already

bad it will bring unprecedented

flooding hurricanes drought wildfire

and Extinction but the problem is that the majority of the work has yet

to happen to fulfill many of those climate commitments

that would keep us below 3°

C of warming with many plans relying on Net Zero strategies

of continuing to burn fossil fuels

while waiting on the hope of a massive

upscaling of untested carbon captur

Technologies already many countries have failed to meet the pace of their commitments

and there is a shocking lack of Confidence

from ipcc scientists on positive climate outcomes

considering this it is just prudent and basic risk assessment to consider the low

probability extreme catastrophe scenarios

the scenarios where a combination of unmitigated

fossil capitalism crashes head first into cascading

tipping points locking in decades of extreme warming

the potential of these scenarios

are very low within a 5 to 10%

possibility and would have to mean no country takes action on climate change during

the next 75 years

but as gerno Wagner

and Martin whitesman note in their book climate shock

if you had a 10%

chance of having a fatal car accident You' take necessary

precautions if your finances had a 10%

chance of suffering a severe loss you'd reevaluate

your assets so if we know the world is warming

and there's a 10%

chance that this might eventually lead to a cat rophe beyond anything we could

imagine why aren't we doing more about climate change

right now we must take extreme

climate scenarios more seriously

not because these Pathways will be the most likely future

but because we have to be prepared

in the off chance

that extreme warming does happen

while modeling for below 3°

C scenarios seems to take up much of the research

there is still some literature

on the potential for

above 3° scenarios like this paper from the renowned climate scientist

James Hansen or this one on the potential for a hot house Earth scenario

the Futures these papers

lay out are Bleak

but the possible worlds they Envision

should be more than enough to Galvanize

us into action to try as hard as possible to make sure those worlds

never exist as David Wallace Wells writes in his widely read piece for New

York Magazine it is worse

than you think he wrote that in 2018

and after 6 years Wallace Wells notes that climate out comes are more promising

but the worst case warming scenarios

still look as bad as ever

even as more countries map out paths to Net Zero economies

the possibility that commitments

fail that fossil fuels continue to burn at ever growing rates

and that capitalist production

continues to run rampant

still looms the latest report from the intergovernmental

panel on climate change models a pathway

that if we continue on with fossil capitalist business as usual

temperatures could reach as high as 5.7

de C of warming with 4.4

de as the middle range

with each degree of warming

disaster threats compile and Cascade

potentially adding to even more warming

as we'll soon see indeed there is still a lot of uncertainty

around the extent of global temperature rise over the next Century the amount of

warming depends both on how much and how quickly the world takes climate action

in the coming decades

as well as how soon or if natural tipping points thrust us deeper into

the climate crisis even substantial

economic growth could make High emissions scenarios

more plausible as one paper notes

higher economic growth rates should make the high emissions

scenario 35% more likely

this uncertainty combined with the knowledge that fossil capitalism

will fight tooth and nail to protect its profits and extractivist

interests means scenarios above 4°

of warming are still a possibility

in a world above 4°

of warming would look dramatically

different than it does

today to begin we'll travel to the island nation of Vanuatu

and archipell go in the Pacific Ocean

already battling Rising Seas caused by 1.2

de of warming since

1993 sea level has risen 6 mm

per year along the coast of Vanuatu

a seemingly minuscule measurement

that has already had devastating

consequences according to the New York Times banatu

has already had to relocate

six whole Villages across four of its islands

and under a high emission scenario

this damage will rapidly

increase unfettered emissions and warming

means more frequent Category 5 hurricanes

like Cyclone Pam that hit the archipelago

in 2015 destroying 177,000

buildings and displacing 65,000

people the ipcc notes that the possibility of sea level rise of 2 m

by 2100 and an excess of 15 M

by 2300 under the very high greenhouse

gas emission scenario cannot be excluded

an amount that would be the final nail in the coffin for large chunks

of coastal towns across

banatu throughout the World warming

above 4° means an accelerated

pace of Arctic ice melting

as well as the swelling

of ocean water if the worst case of 15 M of sea level rise

occurs it would plunge

vast swaths of countries like Bangladesh

which already experiences dangerous

floods wholly underwater even in Imperial core cities like Amsterdam

or New York City lowly

land will become unlivable

forcing people to migrate to Higher Ground

And if the water doesn't reach you the heat will according to the think

t chadam house heat related mortality

has increased by nearly

54% for people over the age of 65

in the past two decades

296,000 deaths in 2018

in 2019 alone a potential 300

billion working hours were lost due to temperature increases

globally 52% more than in 2000

under Pathways that bring us above 4°

C of warming this number will balloon

as heat grows more severe

at 4° some equatorial

and Desert Cities will become unlivable

like the port city of alhuda

in Yemen where in a much hotter world the residents would experience an estimated

301 days of temperatures

intolerable to humans meanwhile

one paper explains that around 2.7

billion persons will experience at least one week of daytime ambient

conditions associated with uncompensable

heat stress 1.5 billion will experience a month under such conditions and

363.50 million will be faced with with an entire

season of life-altering extreme

heat in short ambient heat and humidity

will make countless cities ghost towns for months of the year and yes the

Imperial Corp will certainly feel the effects of this heat as David Wallace Wells

notes at 4° the deadly European heat wave of 2003

which killed as many as 2,000

people a day will be a normal summer in Europe

he adds that at 6°

of warming in the United States summer labor of any kind would become impossible

in the Lower Mississippi

Valley and everybody in the country east of the Rockies would be under more

heat stress than anyone

anywhere in the world today

this is the future we could face if business as usual continues on one

where Farm Workers must literally work in a global sauna

to put food on the plates of those sitting in the comfort of their

air conditioned dining room but that meal will also be at risk as the

world reaches 4 degrees of warming

permanent extreme droughts will be the norm by the end of the century in

Europe causing worse than dust bow like conditions

increased rainfall will mean frequent floods in central Africa

and South Asia and the damage of hurricanes

like Maria or Cyclone Daniel

will be common place

not to mention the ipcc

notes that a world warmed

past 4° will cause substantial

species loss further accelerating

the sixth mass extinction

keep in mind this is just until the end of the century

if fossil fued capitalism

manages to make it through these disasters

gripping to the seat of power and production

then global temperatures could continue to rise past that gruesome Benchmark

of 4° C so with all of this possibly on the horizon

it is just prudent risk assessment to act decisively

to cut fossil fuel emissions

and build strong and resilient

economies because as much as extreme temperature

Pathways will fuel instabilities

throughout the natural world

it will also catalyze

conflict political tension and social

unrest our current Global capitalist

economy is not built to survive

a world that's 4°

warmer for over 10,000

years global temperatures have remained relatively

steady allowing humans to flourish

through agricultural Ingenuity and explode

in population under the capitalist mode of production

but as capital has ushered in an era of extreme

production and fossil fuel extraction

it is also digging

its own grave a world built on the accumulation

of wealth is il equipped for the coming storm of extreme temperature

as we glimpsed in a future of extremes

weather Heat and and sea level rise won't Cascade

into just natural disasters

climate change will be the Catalyst of conflict

migration and instability across the world

as we've already seen with drought and extreme weather comes food instability

our current food system is already fragile

it fails hundreds of millions

of people as they struggle to buy food which has been heavily commodified

within a global market

prolonged droughts or frequent floods

that would be common in a world warmed

to over 4° C

would push that food system

over the edge our capitalist food system is not about getting the most food

into the most hands

but about selling the most food to get the best profit margins

and accumulate capital and when unimaginable

crop loss is introduced

into that equation famine

is inevitable indeed for the top four maze producing regions

accounting for 87% of maze production

the likelihood of production losses

greater than 10% under a 2°

temperature rise to 86%

under 4° in short a much warmer

world will mean it would be much harder to grow and harvest food and

every degree matters under 4°

of warming many will lose

their ability to grow the very stuff

of life and while famine

presses down on us from one side

intense heat and humidity

will quite literally cook our brain capacity

and increase our propensity

for violence today the pressures of a warmer planet have already

exacerbated tensions like in the case of the Syrian Civil War or more broadly

the Arab Spring conflicts

whose tension ions were heightened

as some researchers have claimed by climate change fuel

drought and instability as wace Wells writes pulling on evidence from researchers Marshall Burke

and Solomon sang for every half degree of warming

societies will see between a 10 to 20%

increase in the likelihood of armed conflict

a planet 5° warmer

would have at least

half again as many wars as we do today

and these wars alongside

the increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes

wildfires and droughts will Force Millions

out of their homes

driving a vicious feedback

loop of migration and conflict

a study from the World Bank estimates that if we don't take major action

on climate change by 2050

216 million people will be on the Move in their own countries

and as the researchers are quick to note these are conservative

numbers because the percentage of people exposed to life-threatening

heat stress is projected to rise from today's

30% to 48 to

76% that's just from heat and humidity

alone natural disasters increases

in pandemics and species Extinction

will only grow as the planet Heats

forcing even more migration

locally and internationally and partly

this migration is driven by capitalism's

penchant for protecting profits

and production not people indeed for multinationals

and free market Hawks

disasters are a boon for their bottom line they can be an opportunity to

build luxury hotels on recently destroyed beaches

or push through privatization

of public public goods and what is known as disaster

capitalism and within this context of instability

fossil capitalism will fight tooth and nail to maintain

power as I discussed in my video on fossil fascism

this could look like the rise to power of a series of fossil fascist

strong men like Trump or the ex-president

of Brazil xer bolsonaro

Who wield racist ultranationalist

rhetoric as a shield

against attacks on fossil fuels

or it could look like the rise of eco- fascism

which seeks to protect National

environments and racial Purity by cutting carbon and preserving land

but in the process

Shoring up the nation's borders

and assuring the continued

flow of wealth and capital to that Nation the instability

and Chaos that are inevitable

at 4° C of warming

could be the fuel used to boost this right-wing

extremism onto the global stage once again it is after all in times of

great shock as Naomi Klein explains in the shock Doctrine

when people are most vulnerable

and susceptible to Violent regimes of auster

ity and authoritarianism all of these natural and societal

vectors push on each other in a dynamic

Cascade of collapse we can see here in a flowchart

from a paper on worst case climate scenarios

just how interconnected these forces are it's not just natural tipping points like the

melting of permafrost which releases even more greenhouse

gases into the air or the mass die off of the Amazon rainforest

but also economic and social tipping points

that will plunge us deeper into collapse

if we continue down the road of extreme global temperatures

if one Domino Falls

it could tip off a chain of Destruction

that ripples across the globe

and the higher global temperatures

tick the more likely it is for those dominoes

to fall so we must prevent that Cascade

of potential disaster and thankfully we're already

making strides to do

just that take a deep breath in and breathe it out

wherever you are feel the ground beneath you

these catastrophic scenarios are a lot to take in but take part that these

are just potential Futures

they have not yet come to pass

remember that these pathways

are some of the worst

case scenarios there's a 5 to 10%

chance that these Futures

happen we have a very real chance of stopping them so instead of sinking

deep into despair about these catastrophic

Futures use them to Galvanize

you into action because of recent climate commitments

China and the US's

mobilization of renewable capacity

and the fact that now in 90%

of the world it is cheaper to install

Renewables than fossil fuel plants

the current models chart out 2.7

de to 3.4 de of warming by the end of the century

this is still bad

but certainly a not as bad scenario

but of course A lot can happen between now and the end of the

century we can do a lot better than 2.7

de of warming but it will require

immense pressure from Below in the form of mass movements

like we saw in 2019

combined with all sorts of tactics like non-reform

performs blockades and when appropriate

attacking fossil Capital directly through sabotage

we need to force a rapid downscaling

of production and fossil fuel

extraction we need to address fossil Capital

headon because the faster we abolish fossil fuels

the brighter our future

will be turning a blind eye

ignoring these worst case scenarios

doesn't make them magically

disappear they are looming

on the horizon and we need to face them down in order to rationally

plan for the coming catastrophe

if we use these future

as kindling to ignite

passion and love for all that we have on this world our future could

be a beautiful one but if we sink into complacency

or despair letting others handle this Global crisis

the future of warming

could be a whole lot darker

because preventing a catastrophic

future requires the passion

the organizing and the commitment

of all people everywhere

to build a just

more sustainable and ethical

Planet if you're feeling overwhelmed

or anxious by the possibilities

of extreme climate change and collapse

one thing that has helped me immensely

over the years to feel and sit with my emotions

is meditation so I made a guided meditation

for collapse for all of my supporters

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